Stability of the Top 10

Bitcoin has “not even” risen by ten percent this week – which is not a bad development. In principle, the Bitcoin price moves in a stable upward trend and is above the exponential moving averages EMA50 and EMA100. On April 21, the price entered a triangle pattern. The resistance of this pattern is currently being tested.

Winners and losers in the Bitcoin secret price slump

A positive but falling MACD and an RSI at 65 lead to an overall bullish impression. Instead of opening a long directly, one should rather wait for a Bitcoin secret rise according to onlinebetrug above the resistance at 7.350,87 Euro or a bounce at the support of the triangle pattern at about 7.121,00 Euro and then enter. A useful stop loss would then be the resistance or the support, in the latter case the first target would be 7,350.87 Euro.

After all, the gap between EOS and Litecoin is ten percent. The gap between Cardano and Litecoin is also 13 per cent. Finally, the gap between Cardano and Stellar is much narrower at eight per cent.

For something to change in the structure of the top 10, at least 11 per cent must be overcome. The Monero share price rose by 45 percent last week, so such an increase is not completely unlikely. Since NEO also performed rather poorly this week, this possibility cannot be ruled out.

On average, all crypto currencies have risen by 28 percent. The majority of crypto currencies thus performed better than Bitcoin. For the top 100, the result is clearer: with an average increase of 33 percent, the exchange rates developed better than Bitcoin.

The largest price gains were made primarily by crypto currencies with smaller market capital: Pundi X, Dentacoin and Bitcoin Private tripled or doubled their prices. In total, ten more crypto currencies were able to achieve price gains of over 50 percent.

Worst price performance: Bitcoin

The “losers” of the week are Tether and Verge. Tether did what you’d expect from a stable coin and didn’t change course at all. Verge, on the other hand, suffered a price loss of 17 percent. This development was foreseeable, such an announcement pumping, as it took place around the co-operation with Pornhub, lured all those, which want to take only the pump with them. Overall, only eight percent of the crypto currencies within the top 100 have a worse performance than Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s market share has fallen accordingly and now amounts to 37.9 percent.

Crypto and traditional markets – Bitcoin’s monthly return on almost all assets

The correlation to oil fell further, so that Bitcoin and oil are now 40 percent anticorrelated. Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped slightly, while its monthly return is higher than any other asset except gold.

What good are Bitcoin and the strongly correlated crypto market as uncorrelated assets? Are the traditional markets still decoupled from the crypto market? And how high is Bitcoin’s volatility?

Size correlation and volatility are particularly important for institutional Bitcoin formula investors

A low correlation with traditional markets such as the S&P500, the DAX or the Dow Jones would confirm that the Bitcoin formula crypto market could be interesting for institutional investors. It would be helpful for greater portfolio diversification. Another monitor is volatility: high volatility and the associated risk deter institutional investors.

Since the beginning of November, we have been monitoring Bitcoin’s performance compared to traditional markets. We are therefore looking at last month’s correlation, a moving correlation, a moving volatility and a moving return. The last three values are calculated for each day on the basis of the last 30 days. Since the correlations within the crypto market are very similar and BTC is currently the most interesting for institutional investors, we focus largely on the Bitcoin price.

With a respectable rebound, further price losses at Bitcoin, XRP and Ethereum could be avoided last year. The volatility is thus back again, with the sideways movement of Bitcoin and XRP leading to a decline in them. The coupling of the top 3 crypto currencies with each other hardly differs in the meantime:

Correlation: crypto currencies vs. traditional market

Bitcoin’s correlation to the classic values has changed significantly since week 51 last year. The coupling to oil is strongly negative. The same can be said for the coupling to the American indices S&P 500 and Dow Jones:

Due to these negative linkages, the average correlation among all the markets considered is lowest for Bitcoin.

The linkages to gold and the DAX are strongest, while the correlations to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices and the correlation to oil are negative:

Bitcoin volatility falls slightly
Bitcoin’s volatility remains significantly higher than that of its other assets. Even that of oil fades against Bitcoin’s volatility. On the positive side, however, volatility is falling somewhat:

The monthly yield is currently at zero, but it has increased considerably. Although the monthly yield has not yet been able to beat gold, it is now above the three indices S&P 500, DAX and Dow Jones as well as above the monthly yield of oil:

Even if Bitcoin’s volatility were to remain so high, this would at least be an uncertainty that investors can expect. A certain stability can therefore be seen. As was the case in week 51 last year, Bitcoin will once again be attractive for institutional investors.

Study: crypto trader are partly to blame for the fall in Bitcoin price

According to a recent study by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco, the launch of Bitcoin futures last year was one of the reasons for the price drop at the beginning of the year.

Crypto trader demand the need to use Bitcoin

Now it is official – the bloodbath in January can be attributed to the launch of futures contracts in December 2017, among other crypto trader. What crypto trader already reported in January has now been confirmed by a study conducted by researchers at the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank in San Francisco.

Last December everything sounded like an upturn in the Bitcoin ecosystem. The CBOE and CME brought the Bitcoin world together with the traditional financial system. With the Bitcoin futures it should be possible from now on to profit from the fluctuations in the Bitcoin exchange rate without having to own the crypto currency itself. What was also new was that you could also benefit from a falling price. With forward contracts you could speculate on the price – after buying the financial products and a correct estimate you could make profits. Regardless of whether the price rose or fell.

U.S. Federal Reserve Bank study sees parallels to real estate bubble

The research team at the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank sees this as a parallel to the real estate bubble in the USA at the beginning of the millennium. They see in the strong price increase of Bitcoin and its fall after the issuance of the futures by the CME a parallel to price developments that had already existed in financial theory.

This price dynamic follows a trend where the demand for a product for a financial instrument is driven by optimists who drive up the price until the market introduces a mechanism that allows pessimists to invest in the other direction:

“And until 17 December, these [optimistic] investors were right. As in a self-fulfilling prophecy, optimists pushed up Bitcoin’s price and encouraged more people to get in and push up the price. But the pessimists had no mechanism to invest money in their views that the price would collapse.”

With the introduction of Bitcoin futures, the pessimists were finally able to benefit. By predicting a fall in prices at a certain point in time, they could profit from their prediction with the futures contracts. And for the time being, they were right. First came the sharp rise in prices in December – the Bitcoin was suddenly worth up to 20,000 US dollars. Only to fall back to as low as USD 6,000 by the beginning of February. Those who had bet on it had won.

The scientists continue to attribute this to the difference between speculative and transactional demand. This difference was obviously too high. The majority of investors speculated on high profits, while only a small portion of the people actually used Bitcoin (to pay with it).

And what happens next?
The researchers assume that the Bitcoin price will rise as transactional demand increases. In other words, if Bitcoin is actually used, it will be worth more. This is also due to the deflationary character of the crypto currency. Since the stock of Bitcoins is limited overall and the payout is constantly decreasing, the price can ultimately rise with increasing use and increased demand. Ultimately, everything depends on a number of factors such as regulation, acceptance, supply and demand. So: Use Bitcoin!

The situation on Monday: What Bitcoin can do

Kaspersky uncovered an extremely audacious cryptoscam – the authors suspect the security researchers in North Korea. Meanwhile, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse puts big words into his mouth while Thailand is working on its own crypto currency. In the meantime, BitMEX users who have been put off by the news rage on Twitter. And all because of Bitcoin. The situation on Monday.

Bitcoin can do one thing above all else: stir things up. And that slowly but surely spills over into all directions. While all the traders and hodlers are looking spellbound at the Bitcoin course, Heiko Maas, for example, has – even if unintentionally – made a plea for crypto currencies. At least that’s how we interpret it. Speaking of political affairs: Thailand is currently working on its own crypto currencies – quite similar to the neighbouring Liechtenstein. The latter crown the whole thing with a security token, and the stable ground for an extensive adaptation of the blockchain technology is ready. And what has all this set in motion? To a large extent, Satoshi Nakamoto’s white paper, with which he wanted one thing above all: to stir up the global financial system.

The thing with Bitcoin loophole

Now that we’ve been to the creator of this great architecture called Bitcoin: It looks like he, she or it isn’t a Bitcoin loophole millionaire after all and not a scam. The BitMEX stock exchange, which has meanwhile fallen into disrepute, wants to have found out all this. And shortly after they presented their research results, there was a scandal. After an (apparently announced) pause in reconstruction, the stock exchange, on which derivatives for crypto currencies are traded, was suddenly under a DDOS attack. The result: users could not log in. Afterwards manipulation accusations arose quite fast – some users might look around now for alternatives. Especially since the farce happened by chance when BitMEX moved to the most expensive offices in the world. Whether coincidence or not, it turns out that Bitcoin can do one thing above all else: stir up.

Even the good old US stock exchange supervisory authority still has its hands full with the crypto currency. Although the Securities and Exchange Commission eagerly put its bureaucratic heads together, the regulatory soup still doesn’t really succeed. After the temporary cancellation of the Bitcoin ETF, the SEC quickly decided to change its mind again: “You might want to reconsider the whole thing.

The Bitcoin course

What about the Bitcoin class? It is relatively unimpressed, especially compared to last year. (If you can say something like that about prices). Thus it could register a gentle plus of scarcely five per cent within the last week. He is thus staggering slightly upwards between the US$ 6,000 and 7,000 mark and – quite the opposite to his environment – is not too upset. As always, you can read about the current state of the Bitcoin exchange rate and all the others here. We wish you a good start into the week:

The Intellectual Dark Web – An Alternative for Patreon?

Social platforms are increasingly censoring undesirable and controversial opinions. However, the crypto universe directly provides a censorship-resistant alternative:

Content creators have not had it easy in recent years. Those who want to make a living by creating YouTube videos or the like often depend on the platforms. Some people are hit hard when YouTube decides that the presented content is not suitable for advertising and thus demonstrates the video. As an alternative, another platform has established itself over the last few years that specializes in providing artists and others with a regular income: Patreon.

Patreon creates a livelihood for cryptosoft artists

Patreon is a site where anyone can create a profile. With a cryptosoft profile it is possible for the donors, the cartridges, to pay continuously donations, which are not a scam according to onlinebetrug. The artist thus receives a reliable income with which he can plan. On the other hand, the artist can grant special rights to his cartridges. For example, they may ask questions, which are then answered, get to see the contents earlier and so on. A concept that creates independence from YouTube.

Social media muck out
At the latest after Alex Jones and his news channel Infowars were deplattformised practically overnight by all major social media, it should be clear that censorship goes through the big technology companies. Google, Facebook and Twitter don’t want to identify themselves with controversial issues. The result is that many content creators are ruining their years of work overnight. In addition, they also lose any prospect of a steady income from their online activities.

So far, Patreon has offered a safe haven, a second mainstay, independent of YouTube’s demonetarization. However, Patreon’s foundation is now also shaking: Milo Yiannopoulos and Sargon of Akkad have been expelled from the platform. What now?

BitBacker: Censorship-resistant alternatives for Patreon

Patreon’s approach shows impressively how easily unwanted voices can be suffocated. Social platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and now Patreon censor under the pretext of the alleged hate speech. The psychologist and author Jordan B. Peterson criticizes this attitude. In his opinion, the speech must be free for a society to find the truth. Ironically, in a post on Patreon, he reflects on censorship and ponders alternatives. Jordan Peterson, Sam Harris, Dave Rubin and Joe Rogan are also known as the “Intellectual Dark Web” in the United States.

This could be, for example. The meaning is the same as for Patreon, but the platform attaches importance to censorship resistance. For this reason BitBacker offers crypto currencies as support for artists. If you want to create a censorship-resistant platform, censorship-resistant money is a must. Bitcoin seems ideal here.

Dave Rubin, a fellow Peterson, has already set up a Bitcoin address.

Ex-IWF economist Kenneth Rogoff: The Bitcoin bubble will burst

The former IMF economist Kenneth Rogoff is certain: “The Bitcoin market is a bubble and will collapse, but other crypto currencies would thrive and determine the future of finance. This is the quintessence of an editorial by Harvard professor published this week in the British Guardian. This adds another name to the list of prominent Bitcoin skeptics.

Are crypto currencies the undisputed future of digital finance, or are they just the next tulip in the face of dizzying exchange rates?

The former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kenneth Rogoff answered this question this week with a disgruntled forecast. His look into the future predicts: “The Bitcoin rate is a bubble that will collapse. However, this is not a rejection of crypto currencies per se, rather the technology would “flourish for a long time”, Rogoff confirms the view of the current IMF director Christine Lagarde.

The ongoing price sprint would come to an end and Bitcoin news itself would be replaced as the currency

After JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon had already sent the Bitcoin news exchange rate on a downward trend with his accusation of fraud in September, another well-known voice from the economy is now painting a gloomy picture of the future for the quasi-leading currency.

Rogoff sees the pessimistic prospects for Bitcoin as simply justified: Governments could not and would not allow the currencies of decentralised providers to determine the future of finance without public control and at the same time catalyse tax fraud and money laundering. Sooner or later Bitcoin will be the fate of all currencies, Rogoff says. And this is the subordination of state authority.

In Rogoff’s view, this is the end of Bitcoin’s attractiveness: “In the long term, upcoming regulatory efforts would deter investors from speculative interest and dampen the market. He analyses: If the almost anonymity and liberation of state control is omitted, this also applies to the justification of ever new price peaks.

Regulation discourages investors

He continues to see this in the already existing density of alternative coins and the possible development of new crypto currencies regulated by central banks, which would deprive Bitcoin of its right to exist and its unique position. An end of the exchange rate highs can thus be foreseen.

While regulatory responses from the state, for example from Russia, are already emerging and are thus heralding such comprehensive government control, other countries are aiming to exploit Bitcoin’s potential. The 64-year-old takes a critical view of this. Rogoff sees Japan’s moves to recognise Bitcoin as an official currency as a threat to possible tax havens and safe havens for crime financing.

Meanwhile, trade in Bitcoin is booming and has recovered strongly since the share price fell sharply in September due to Jamie Dimon’s comments and China’s increased regulation. On Monday, 10 October 2017, the exchange rate reached a high for the month of 4,638.07 US dollars. This means that the currency has risen by 365 % since the beginning of the year.

Central Banks and Bitcoin – A Journey Around the Globe

While the Bitcoin is currently climbing undreamt-of heights beyond the recently astronomical 15,000 US dollars, there is not only euphoria and a gold-rush atmosphere, but also doubt, scepticism and fear of the next uncontrolled tulip around the crypto currencies – especially on the part of state authorities and central banks.

If one asks governments, state institutions and authorities, there is anything but consensus on how to proceed with the emerging economic power beyond conventional control. On the contrary, depending on where you look on our planet, there is a patchwork of government responses instead of a unanimous tenor.

To regulate or not to regulate – that is the question

And the guardians of the world economy are divided. While some market powers want to rule, crypto currencies deny the status of money, do not even see themselves as responsible or consider the monetary risk to be too low, others are taking a blow. With the regulatory lasso, they want to bring the digital currencies back into the safe hands of the authorities.

The following overview takes you on a journey around the globe. It should provide an overview of the global situation and – without claiming to be exhaustive – reveal differences in government approaches.

Part 3 of our journey around the globe leads us to those states that believe they can recognize the potential of crypto currencies and want to use them for themselves.

The hopeful ones

The top dog and world leader of the Blockchain implementation Estonia shows himself to be a great advocate of crypto currencies until the end. Bitcoin & Co. do not need to fear regulation in the Baltic States. Rather, the Estonians are inspired and strive to publish their own crypto currency, the Estcoin. The director of the Estonian e-residency programme, Kaspar Korjus, proposed such a digital currency in August. This would allow Estonian citizens to authenticate digital documents from anywhere in the world.

But this was promptly contradicted by ECB President Mario Draghi shortly afterwards. His argument: there must be no parallel currency in the EU to the euro. The Estonians’ enthusiasm for crypto currencies, however, may not have caused much cloudiness – the Estcoin website still exists today and, as their latest blog post suggests, the Estcoin idea is far from buried.

Similar to Estonia, Sweden refrains from central bank intervention. Rather, the country’s central bank is enthusiastic about its own use. Since 2015, the Scandinavians have been making plans to become the world’s first cashless country.

In this context, the country’s responsible central bank, the Riksbank, is currently investigating various ways of issuing a digital currency and how this can be implemented technologically.

Apart from crypto currencies, Sweden and Estonia are also among the pioneering countries in terms of further blockchain use. It has been known since 2016 that Sweden is researching a blockchain solution for its land registry entries. Its final test phase was successfully completed at the end of May this year.

Like its neighbour Sweden, Norway is currently not only waiving the regulation of Bitcoin. In the land of fjords, too, hopes are pinned on its own cryto currency. For example, the Norwegian central bank is currently investigating the possibility of issuing a digital payment alternative. This was announced in May by Jon Nicolaisen, deputy chairman of Norge Bank, in a letter from the Norwegian Academy of Sciences on the current differences between conventional money in bank accounts and the increasingly rapid spread of digital currencies.